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Urea
Volatility Model
The Urea
Volatility Model is a personal computer program developed to
help growers determine if AGROTAIN¨ with UAN or urea application
to corn is profitable under the specific conditions of their
own farms. The model requires input of information about field
conditions, expected weather conditions, soil characteristics,
and fertilizer and crop prices, to make 1) an estimate of how
much N would be expected to be lost from the urea or UAN solution
applied to those fields, 2) what the effect of the N loss would
be on shelled corn yield, and 3) what would be the economic consequences
of using and not using AGROTAIN¨. The model is meant to help
growers decide on whether AGROTAIN¨ makes dollars and cents
for them on specific fields and under specific weather conditions.
How
To Use It
To run
the model, click on the Assessment icon. Four indexes will
come up which contain the information needed to run the model calculations.
The numbers or descriptive terms in the white boxes should be
changed to what the conditions in the field are at the time of
sidedress application, while the lime-colored boxes contain numbers
calculated by the model. Make sure that the index icon has four
boxes at the bottom which say "print", "calculate", "graph",
and "quit". If you do not see those boxes, raise the window so
you can click on the boxes.
After
the correct values have been put in all the white boxes, click
to the calculate index and then the "calculate" box at the bottom.
The results of the model calculations, based on the input information
will appear in the lime-colored boxes. The cation exchange capacity,
in units of meq/1OOg, can be changed if those values are known,
otherwise the number will be estimated from the soil texture.
The crop height refers to the height of the corn (in inches)
at the time of the sidedressing. Enter zero for pre-plant applications.
Note that the model is for applications of urea or UAN solutions
which are not incorporated.

How
It Works
The model
works by first looking at the relationship of N application and
expected yield. It is therefore very important that realistic
values be entered for the normal, good yield expected with a
normal rate of N application and good seasonal weather conditions.
If poor data are input for these values, the model will produce
poor estimates.
The model
then estimates the amount of ammonia-N loss that is expected
to occur under the specific soil and weather conditions, based
on scientific research that has been done in the Midwest to relate
wind speed, soil moisture, organic matter, pH, and other things
to ammonia volatilization. Rainfall of more than about 0.25 inches
stops ammonia loss by washing the urea on the soil surface into
the soil. Therefore, the guess about expected rain or irrigation
can greatly effect the results. Temperature, soil moisture and
soil organic matter effect the rate at which urea is converted
into ammonia, and if the soil surface is very dry, the conversion
can be slowed and ammonia-N losses will be less
The input
parameters that the grower is asked to provide all pertain to
the conditions at the time of the sidedress fertilizer application.
If a value is not known, the model has "default" or average values
that are put in. This prevents the model from "crashing" and
allows running the model with the best available information.
Each parameter will remain the same until it is changed by overwriting
a new value in the white boxes.
Evaluating The Results
The results
of the model can be seen in graph forms by clicking on the "graph" box
and then selecting the simulation desired.
Some of
the input parameters, particularly the expected weather, are
best guesses at the time of the sidedress application. While
the model is a truthful attempt to estimate the losses of N and
the effects of those losses on yield, the reliability of the
guesses as well as the reliability of the model limit the reliability
of the results. Obviously, if an August drought hits, the model
predictions will not be correct. In addition, the scientific
basis for combining the many interacting factors that effect
ammonia-N losses is not perfect. The model is an attempt to estimate
the effects and to help growers to make decisions that are profitable
for them.
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